Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is enjoying a resurgence. After several years of the energy transition looking like it would diminish the role of gas, market fundamentals have reasserted themselves. Power demand is rising sharply, driven both by population growth and industrial activity across Asia-Pacific and Africa, as well as by the sudden, steep increase in electricity requirements from data centers to enable artificial intelligence.
Inflation, geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns about energy security in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also pushed governments and utilities to prioritize energy reliability and affordability alongside decarbonization. This combination has strengthened LNG’s role as a critical transition fuel.
With these pressures building in the background, global LNG-related dealmaking has accelerated. Infrastructure investment tied to the energy space—spanning M&A and greenfield development, alongside related financings and refinancings—climbed to US$139 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, already more than double the full-year figures for 2024 and 2023. Deal volume also increased, with 60 transactions, well above the 50 deals announced in the same period last year. At the time of writing (December 15), annual value had risen to US$157 billion on the back of 78 deals.
Much of this activity is linked to the next wave of LNG supply projects aiming to come online toward the end of the decade, as developers and financiers position themselves for an extended period of demand growth. More than 170 million tons per annum of new global capacity is expected online by 2030, though timelines remain uncertain. Supply additions have lagged behind consumption since 2022, leaving the market tightly balanced and encouraging capital deployment.
US momentum
The US sits at the heart of this expansion cycle and has become the focal point for LNG investment activity. A series of high-profile project milestones—ranging from new trains at Corpus Christi, Rio Grande and Port Arthur to Venture Global’s CP2 development and the revitalization of developments such as Commonwealth (now Caturus)—has created a constant flow of transactions. Developers are progressing to final investment decisions at a pace not seen since the first shale-driven LNG boom, while PE and infrastructure funds are taking significant positions in both upstream and liquefaction assets.
The numbers illustrate the scale of this activity. In the first three quarters of 2025, US deal value surged to US$110 billion, far exceeding all of 2023 and 2024, while volume rose to 30 transactions, also well above the last two full-year totals. At the time of writing (December 15), there had been a further nine deals, bringing the year-to-date total to 39, with value rising to US$123 billion.
A number of factors are driving this. The flexibility of US project structures, the amount of liquidity in the market, the range of financing options available, a deep domestic gas market and privately-owned resources—unlike the state-controlled regimes in most LNG-producing jurisdictions—all make asset transfers far more straightforward.
The result is an unusually dynamic ownership environment, with pre-FID (final investment decision) project takeovers, partial sell-downs, upstream reshuffling and midstream carve-outs all fueling deal flow.
Another trend reinforcing US momentum is the renewed interest of Japanese buyers. Having reconsidered their procurement strategies after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, their reemergence reflects a broader policy shift to secure long-term supply and diversify import sources. For example, JERA is in advanced talks to acquire US$1.7 billion in US shale gas assets, while Mitsui and Tokyo Gas both recently agreed 20-year supply deals with Venture Global. Japanese buyers are also taking up different positions on the value chain, with many of them increasing their trading operations in Singapore, both driven by and helping to further boost demand for LNG in Southeast Asia.
APAC demand
The rising tide of global demand and dealmaking naturally turns the focus to Asia-Pacific. The region remains the world’s largest importer of LNG and will continue to determine the trajectory of global demand.
Shell forecasts roughly 60 percent growth in LNG consumption by 2040, largely led by APAC, while energy analysts Wood Mackenzie expect South and Southeast Asia to become the main engines of demand growth as China stabilizes and Europe declines. Despite its central role on the demand side, though, the region generates far less LNG-related M&A activity than its size might imply.
Deal data reflects this trend. In the first three quarters of 2025, APAC transactions totaled US$16.3 billion—the highest reading since 2022, but still modest relative to the region’s strategic importance. Only seven deals were recorded across the period. At the time of writing (December 15), YTD value had risen to US$17.6 billion and volume to ten deals.
The reason for this imbalance is structural: Most APAC economies are downstream markets without significant liquefaction capacity, and the upstream projects that do exist are typically legacy developments with entrenched national or state-linked ownership. These characteristics limit the churn that characterizes the US and other private-market jurisdictions.
Where transactions do occur, they tend to be strategic rather than financial. Recent examples include changes in the ownership of Indonesia’s Abadi project and portfolio acquisitions in Australia linked to global expansion strategies. A more transformational moment seemed possible with the proposed US$18.7 billion acquisition of Santos by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which had the potential to reshape the LNG market in Australia and the wider region, but the offer was ultimately withdrawn amid a combination of valuation, regulatory and political challenges. The deal’s failure underscores the sensitivity surrounding transactions involving nationally significant energy assets in APAC.
Emerging gas hubs
Downstream, however, the region is on the cusp of a more active phase. Much of Southeast Asia is currently building out LNG-to-power and regasification capacity to meet rapid demand growth and displace more carbon-intensive fuels. These assets are initially developed on a project basis, often backed by local utilities or industrial users via power purchase agreements, but over time they are likely to become investable.
The pattern is familiar in Latin America and other emerging markets: Greenfield terminals and power plants stabilize after commissioning, attract private capital and then find their way into secondary transactions. APAC’s downstream gas buildout appears set to follow a similar trajectory, creating a pipeline of potential future M&A opportunities.
Several dynamics will shape this next phase. Energy security has become the overriding priority for policymakers across the region. Countries that once expected energy efficiency or demographic trends to moderate demand are now revising forecasts upward. Even Japan, whose declining population had previously led policymakers to project falling energy demand, has revised its outlook due to semiconductor factory build-out and data center expansion, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Strategic Energy Plan published earlier this year.
Both Japan and South Korea have taken explicit positions in favor of long-term LNG consumption, encouraged by concerns over grid resilience and geopolitical risk. Moreover, Southeast Asian economies continue to expand rapidly, with Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh emerging as structurally significant future importers. Meanwhile, private capital remains eager to invest in long-life, yield-stable assets, and LNG increasingly fits that profile as technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage progress more slowly than once hoped.
What lies ahead
Naturally, challenges remain. Tariffs, trade tensions and shipping restrictions can inflate costs. Oversupply risks are forecasted for a short period later in the decade as new US capacity enters the market, potentially complicating price and valuation assumptions.
Regulatory regimes across APAC remain complex, especially where energy security or national interest considerations prevail. Not every major deal will reach the finish line—the Santos experience is likely not the last of its kind.
Still, the direction of travel is being set. APAC’s dependence on LNG imports will deepen over the next decade, and its role in the global gas economy will expand accordingly. For now, much of the active dealmaking takes place upstream and across the Pacific. But as new downstream infrastructure matures and regional buyers continue to integrate their positions across the value chain, M&A activity within APAC itself is likely to grow.